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TYNDP 2025 – an overviewENTSOG publishes draft of the 2024 Ten-Year Network Development Plan for natural gas. The European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG) has submitted the draft of its Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2024 (TYNDP 2024) for the assessment of the natural gas system for public consultation. The document was prepared in accordance with Article 26 of Regulation (EU) 2024/1798 and Article 13 of Regulation (EU) 2022/869 and assesses the resilience of the European natural gas network under various stress conditions. For the first time, ENTSOG is publishing the assessments for hydrogen and natural gas as separate, standalone documents within the TYNDP. Central role of natural gas infrastructure in the EU energy system ‘Natural gas infrastructure remains an essential part of the evolving EU energy system, particularly as the EU pursues its climate goals under the European Green Deal.’ The report confirms the EU's steady progress towards decarbonisation, supported by the integration of renewable energies and the decline in the use of fossil fuels. Natural gas infrastructure plays a crucial role in providing capacity to support variable renewable energy sources in the electricity sector. It helps to mitigate electricity price increases and leads to lower costs for industry and society. At the same time, the repurposing of existing natural gas infrastructure for hydrogen transport is expected to contribute significantly to the future European hydrogen network. ‘This process must be planned transparently and in coordination between operators, while ensuring security of supply of natural gas and meeting regulatory requirements,’ the report emphasises. Security of supply and sustainability Security of supply is assessed based on the ability of European gas systems to ensure the continuous supply of methane and hydrogen to all countries under various stress conditions. The simulations show that most EU Member States can meet their methane demand due to available supply and sufficient interconnection capacities. The outlook for supply adequacy shows a downward trend in the need for supplies from outside the EU. Under the National Trends+ (NT+) scenario, the need for supplies from outside the EU is projected to decline to 3,050-3,150 TWh/year (or 276-287 billion m³/year) in 2030 and 1,400 to 1,450 TWh/year (or 129 to 132 billion m³/year) in 2040. Conventional natural gas production in Europe is expected to decline steadily, but this will be offset by increasing volumes of biomethane. According to the report, biomethane production will not currently meet the REPowerEU target of 35 billion m³ by 2030. The European Biogas Association (EBA) forecasts a total capacity of around 11 billion m³ by 2030, while the ENTSOG scenario is more optimistic, seeing a potential of over 40 billion m³ by 2030. Outlook for the future The TYNDP 2024 confirms that natural gas infrastructure will continue to play an important role in supporting system flexibility and ensuring security of supply during the transition. Underground gas storage remains a crucial tool for balancing supply and demand, especially during periods of peak consumption. The simulation results show generally robust infrastructure cooperation between EU countries. This resilience is further supported by the projected decline in natural gas demand and the expected increase in biomethane production. Nevertheless, a coordinated approach between network operators, regulators and policymakers remains essential to build a resilient, flexible and future-proof energy system. |
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