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Joint scenarios for the TYNDP 2024For the first time, the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas and Electricity (ENTSO-G and ENTSO-E) have jointly prepared scenarios as the basis for the current 10-year network development plans (TYNDP). Based on the previous scenario reports, electricity and gas planning experts from across Europe have worked together to make the report more ambitious, comprehensive and transparent than previous editions. The scenarios assess the interactions between the electricity and gas systems to provide a comprehensive and integrated assessment of the infrastructure. The National Trends scenarios are based on the energy and climate policies of the EU Member States and take into account the EU's climate targets. The "Global Ambition" and "Distributed Energy" scenarios aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030 and achieve net zero emissions by 2050: National Trends (NT+): This scenario is based on the current energy and climate policies of the EU Member States and aims to achieve a 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. It promotes an ambitious development of energy efficiency, renewable energies and low-carbon technologies. Distributed Energy (DE): Focuses on decentralised energy production and consumption. It emphasises the role of prosumers (consumers who are also producers) and energy-positive buildings. This scenario emphasises the extensive use of renewable energies and local energy systems. global ambition (GA): Emphasises a global perspective with a strong focus on the integration and use of hydrogen and other innovative technologies. It envisages a significant role for international trade in renewable energy and technologies to achieve climate targets. These scenarios all provide a detailed roadmap for achieving the European climate targets and shaping a future-proof and sustainable energy system in Europe. It also shows that all available decarbonisation and renewable energy technologies will be necessary to achieve the ambitious targets. Hydrogen plays a key role in all scenarios for the decarbonisation of the gas sector and for the optimal use of renewable electricity production. The scenario development process involves extensive stakeholder engagement to ensure that all relevant parameters are considered and open discussions are held during the public consultation processes. The grid development plans to be developed based on these scenarios will provide decision makers with better information to make informed decisions for planning efficient infrastructures that benefit all European consumers. The scenarios focus on the following eight key elements: 1) Energy efficiency and integration of renewable energy The scenarios are based on the principle of "energy efficiency first" and aim for significant technological improvements and active consumer participation to reduce energy demand and make the integration of renewable energy more efficient 2) Decarbonisation The aim is to achieve a 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 (compared to 1990 levels) and net zero emissions by 2050. This requires significant investment in renewable energies such as wind and solar as well as in energy storage technologies and energy transport infrastructure. 3) Ambitious expansion of renewable energies The scenarios envisage achieving a share of renewable energies of up to 45.4 % by 2030. This includes investments in wind, solar and biomethane as well as the promotion of renewable energy production at consumer level throughout Europe 4) Sector integration The integration of electricity, methane and hydrogen systems is crucial for efficient decarbonisation. This enables the use of renewable hydrogen and synthetic fuels and supports the flexibility requirements of the energy system. 5) Security of supply European methane and hydrogen production can be decarbonised by 2050 to ensure a competitive, resilient and reliable energy system 6) Electrification Electrification is seen as an important method for decarbonisation if the efficient use of renewables can be ensured. 7) Hydrogen is a "game changer" Hydrogen plays a central role in the transition of the current gas system to climate neutrality. It maximises the potential of renewable electricity sources and contributes to reducing dependence on fossil fuels. 8) Innovation Innovation is essential to achieve a sustainable energy future. The scenarios emphasise the need for new and existing technologies to reduce the cost of renewable energy and to promote renewable and decarbonised gases. Conclusion: The transition from fossil to renewable methane (biomethane and synthetic methane) is a central component of all scenarios. Hydrogen is seen as the key to decarbonisation in all scenarios, with its importance increasing significantly by 2050. The integration of hydrogen into the energy system is crucial for achieving climate neutrality. Click here for the report: https://2024.entsos-tyndp-scenarios.eu/ AGGM assessment: We are not surprised that renewable gases play a major role in these scenarios. We know that, in addition to a sharp increase in the use of electrical energy, there will be a great need for molecule-based energy sources such as methane and hydrogen in order for the energy transition in the pipeline to succeed. |
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