E-Control's recently published report on security of supply for gas 2023 presented the situation at the time of writing (November 2023) as stable and secure.
Gas storage facilities were almost completely full and gas supplies via Ukraine were sufficient and continuous.
Nevertheless, reference is made to the need to prepare for possible interruptions. The importance of import capacities from alternative sources, such as Germany and Italy in particular, is particularly evident in the event of a cut in Russian supplies. The focus is on diversifying gas sources, including the use of LNG and renewable gases, in order to reduce dependence on individual supplier countries. In E-Control's view, capacity bottlenecks and regulatory challenges, such as the German gas storage levy, require attention in order to ensure long-term security of supply and support market development. However, E-Control is cautious about the legal qualification of the German gas storage levy. In the meantime, however, the European Commission has taken notice of the export fee, which is contrary to EU law, and political pressure on Germany to rectify the situation is increasing.
Calculations by E-Control show that even if gas supplies via Ukraine were cut off and the winter were colder than average, Austria would come out of the winter period with a storage level of around 19%. This is also in line with AGGM's estimates.
However, the consideration of supply security should not stop at this point. Even if the existing transport capacities from Germany and Italy were fully utilized up to the technical maximum, a complete loss of gas supplies via Ukraine could not be compensated for.
If we continue this calculation, we come to the conclusion that the storage facilities in Austria can only be brought from such a low storage level to a filling level of 33% over the injection period from April 1 to November 1. If this storage level were used for the following winter, the storage volumes would only last until around mid-January. Why is this the case? There is simply a lack of import capacity! The upgrading of import capacities - keyword WAG loop - must therefore be made possible quickly!
In summary, the report addresses many necessary points on security of supply, but the consideration that security of supply in Austria is guaranteed for a winter period even if gas supplies via Ukraine fail, without looking beyond that, seems somewhat abbreviated.
You can find the whole report (German only)
here.
