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Security of supply and the situation on the gas marketFollowing the very cold spell in January, gas consumption has recently fallen significantly. Whilst on some peak days demand still exceeded 500 GWh per day, daily consumption currently stands at just over 200 GWh. The reduced use of gas-fired power stations is a major contributing factor to this. Overall, the picture is mixed: in January, gas consumption stood at 13.2 TWh, slightly higher than the average for the last ten years; by contrast, the significantly milder February saw consumption of 9.4 TWh. On an annual basis, gas consumption is thus only just above the previous year’s level so far.  Source: AGGM A significant portion of the high January consumption was covered by withdrawals from storage. At times, between 0.4 and 0.8 TWh were withdrawn from storage daily. With the decline in consumption, these withdrawals have also fallen significantly over the past two weeks. At the same time, it is evident that import capacities to Austria are currently comfortably sufficient: The pipelines from Germany and Italy are currently operating at only around one-third of capacity – and, in addition to supplying the domestic market, also enable exports to Slovakia, Hungary and Slovenia. Austria’s storage levels currently stand at around 36 TWh. Including the strategic gas reserve of 20 TWh, Austria is thus well above the European average. A solid safety margin is therefore in place for the remainder of the winter and cooler spells in the spring. The strategic gas reserve is now to be extended by a further two years until 2029, a sensible and sound decision given the turbulent circumstances. Against this backdrop, there is currently no cause for concern regarding security of supply – not even in connection with the military conflict in the Middle East. However, the geopolitical situation continues to cause high levels of uncertainty in the markets: wholesale prices have risen significantly recently, climbing from around 33 EUR/MWh to over 60 EUR/MWh within a few days. Conclusion: The physical gas supply in Austria is currently well secured. In the short term, the greatest challenge remains not so much the availability of gas, but rather the high volatility and uncertainty surrounding prices. |
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